David Delene: Okay hey i'm ready to start saying a few things.
David Delene: Is Tuesday.
David Delene: Get the class website up oh stop share my desktop to.
David Delene: So for the people are live hope you can hear me, let me I should be able to share and watch the chat at the same time.
David Delene: Maybe.
David Delene: What the chat.
David Delene: The chat.
David Delene: window.
David Delene: Thank you so i'm looking at the chat you can see the window and okay get rid of this photo thing.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: So the first thing I thought were workout is everybody know we have how much rain we get this weekend.
David Delene: Three inches yeah I heard three inches some places, and anybody see what the official grand forks airport was, but it was more of it to the.
David Delene: East right.
David Delene: So without rain.
David Delene: For some of us that were in Minnesota have to come here.
David Delene: We have to.
David Delene: go across a bridge so two of the three bridges are close now.
David Delene: Right and they were predicting as of actually this morning.
David Delene: That was a 48.5 and we're down to 48 and now it's down to 46 looks like a nice sort of prep told there.
David Delene: Should we take a vote, how many people take will get over 46.
David Delene: Okay, about half the class and a half, will be under 46.
David Delene: That are we supposed to.
David Delene: Do yeah yeah very good rain on Friday Saturday so and.
David Delene: So the precept on here to stay, somewhere here is the.
David Delene: They take into a call only the precept that forecast for the next 24 hours, so it is updated this.
David Delene: At looks like 1129 today so that's that's the forecast so they're not taking into account any.
David Delene: precept this.
David Delene: weekend and they got a pretty Friday, they have a brazen and then stay in, and not fall on here.
David Delene: But they haven't followed on Friday and Saturday, which.
David Delene: If we get the precept this weekend will probably not happen right.
David Delene: But it takes them a while to get it now, you see that the police have fell on what Saturday and Sunday Saturday Friday and Saturday.
David Delene: So it takes time to to get into the river.
David Delene: But.
David Delene: So of course did had a pretty pretty bad where they had a son bag and Kirsten on Sunday and.
David Delene: what's up what a call between here and Kirsten.
David Delene: Fisher Fisher Fisher also had.
David Delene: Quite a high a model, so what a bit excitement there are things to note.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: people get anxious about this so what's the procedure for if you're in an operation program and they got a whole bunch of rain right this.
David Delene: No, not stop talking stop seating so there's a usually, it is a suspension criteria.
David Delene: which includes Friday, because people say, well, why are you really trying to make it great more.
David Delene: When it is.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: So where to begin with.
David Delene: Also, they even don't stop the House of question also because they just don't want people to think.
David Delene: That they're doing anything detrimental when there's no possibility of a father somewhere so.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: So we looked at that 46 feet.
David Delene: See if we have done on Thursday.
David Delene: The other thing I find it posted.
David Delene: That what is lecture the first hour and a half of it, although I recorded about 14 hours and subsided it because I.
David Delene: figured you didn't want to download the big file.
David Delene: The other things is that.
David Delene: We have the exam three on Thursday so, like the other two them wanting to maybe this time I make sure I look at out of questions and I posted a study guide.
David Delene: Which is here, so what am I do is i'm going to write up, we have quite a bit for Section three.
David Delene: On here, including lots of stuff for the radar you had to have extras for that, and then I put.
David Delene: four topics for Dennis brenda's presentation.
David Delene: The components and cost of the seed and he went over that please remember that the silver iodine and the solutions that we make and that's the most expensive part of it, the reason for recordkeeping, why do we keep records.
David Delene: Because it's a federal requirement, so that we have question on the walls of the pirate pirate and the fact that the code pirates on their projects are employed by the state.
David Delene: And the pirates on profile w my who owns and operates it so remember that the code pirates and not employed by the people that operate only aircraft.
David Delene: and
David Delene: People launch times, that was a good question that we asked at the end so when would a peek lunchtimes.
David Delene: For the airplanes for the seven o'clock seven o'clock so late, of the day, six and seven is the peak and then there's another peak.
David Delene: Like yeah in the middle of the night because of that low level jet that kicks stuff off.
David Delene: So there you go as the questions for is the other ones.
David Delene: should have made up your questions you got your questions do again on this week, and so what i'll do is i'll go to and get about.
David Delene: 40 questions on this and then what i'm going to do i'll just tell you right now to go back and review your first two examples and probably.
David Delene: Take word for word the questions off the first ones and give you another 30 or 40 questions.
David Delene: The content will be more evenly spread.
David Delene: For the whole course, so this is going to be heavily weighted to.
David Delene: The last one third.
David Delene: What you have.
David Delene: You know 60% of the questions and rice one third of the final will be equal so that you have the same waiting and then we do have an additional.
David Delene: Questions from today's lecture so today's lecture is not on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday is exam.
David Delene: Okay, and then I probably have.
David Delene: A couple of lectures during the week.
David Delene: So you have them on there.
David Delene: So does that make sense, so you have three more lectures, if you have questions from, and then we will.
David Delene: You know, equally week.
David Delene: All the lectures kind of and it'll probably more questions so i'll probably have like 100 questions as opposed to.
David Delene: 70 ish.
David Delene: That make sense.
David Delene: Oh, a little bit, we could have maybe done this last week, but I would have been late this semester, because we had snow days on this stuff so well, we kind of caught up.
David Delene: With all the materials, so we are.
David Delene: We covering everything.
David Delene: Material wise.
On this.
David Delene: um so any questions that you have about.
David Delene: fog like then hurricanes seated material yes.
Like me.
David Delene: And I guess I don't really understand how, increasing the.
David Delene: So that the question is about if we increase the conductivity.
David Delene: How does that reduce the lightning So the idea is that you need a.
David Delene: big difference in charge, you need to have two areas that are these things be different in charge, because there's a breakdown, because the lightning occurs when you have this high potential difference or a big charge separation.
David Delene: Okay, so there's a.
David Delene: threshold, but then you have to meet to even before you get that lightning discharge.
David Delene: Okay, so if you.
David Delene: We do start conductivity you basically move it down so that we don't reach that threshold for the lightning.
David Delene: That is charges, you have the current move on without the discharge, you have the.
David Delene: Basically, the the flow of electricity.
David Delene: To two drops into the conductivity of the air and the crowds.
David Delene: increase as.
David Delene: You increase.
David Delene: What does it say it says.
David Delene: yeah so you need to use the conductivity of the storm so that.
David Delene: You don't have this charge separation.
David Delene: So remember right an example, you might have is.
David Delene: You don't have static shocks you get like if you walk on a carpet and you shock yourself with shock someone else you get that with a static charge so that occurs in the winter what is going to spirit draw so the air is not big conductive.
David Delene: In the summer, when it's big doctor you don't build up that charge you don't get that discharge, so that this charges, like the white so he he have a lot of conductivity the air you won't have that discharge or you won't have a light, so you build up you want more.
David Delene: conduction.
David Delene: In the air.
David Delene: Is that analogy help or what does that mean more moisture basically mature yeah more moisture breath more drop which more charge.
David Delene: To move it around to have to the conductivity anything you can do to add to the conductivity be helpful so i'd like to this.
David Delene: Is that how was that for me.
David Delene: So I you know there's a lot of theories, they don't really know a lot about this, so this is theoretical because it's hard to measure the charge, but the church can accumulate for longer periods of time on a bigger particles so remember.
David Delene: That the charge disappears very quickly from the small aristotle's ions, but if you get them on a drop with so have this connectivity in on the droplets.
David Delene: But you don't want to have like acceleration, where you have negative charge one phrase positive well because you get that and it doesn't conduct conduct.
David Delene: Okay, you don't have that conductivity so a metal conducts very well, so any of his metal build up any charge.
David Delene: Because it just conductive away for retirement like conductivity between which.
David Delene: Was between the areas you know for the whole atmosphere, we wanted to come activity of the atmosphere of the storm.
David Delene: Okay, she wanted to be conducted without having lightning lightning will a conductor of electricity, but it's like a big discharge, you know some bass conduction.
David Delene: Okay, but it takes a threshold before you get that like and enter her just like that static shock.
David Delene: You need to have some build up and then it is charges fake quick.
David Delene: So the idea is you don't want that quick discharge, which is what the lightning is you want to dissipate that charge slow.
David Delene: decay and and there's a lot of theories is because we don't we it's hard to measure the charge directory when we go and fly with the aircraft measure electric fields that are we saw the charges.
David Delene: it's difficult to measure region of charge, we can measure it on particles are in very small areas but it's fun to.
David Delene: two distinct we measure conductivity of their.
David Delene: We do conductivity measurements, but I mean two wires or something so.
David Delene: We can put up.
David Delene: A sense of between two points and measure it.
David Delene: And there's no way that we vote we measure.
David Delene: Different call.
David Delene: it's not a.
David Delene: semi Oh, we can't wait Oh, we can get returns, we can see what his dogs are there's no.
David Delene: Later shine a laser a rate of our.
David Delene: To find out what the charges there.
David Delene: And it's.
David Delene: they're not mere operation we've done so remember to the ones that operational there of what a bit of the fog of bateman.
David Delene: Like I showed you that one log on but like this depression hurricane modification there's no operational programs for that.
David Delene: And also question is operations wintertime for graphic there's operations.
David Delene: And running ads.
David Delene: it's, no one has been ran it has minutes, but a big ones here suppression.
David Delene: And then capo fog but there's no lightning ones hurricane.
David Delene: Operational programs.
David Delene: On and that's why we we focus on that, but it's you know this theory that you could and people have thought about.
David Delene: And once I haven't talked about various.
David Delene: People when we have conferences talking about pollution.
David Delene: mitigation reduce the pollution and maybe we do sin heavy rains as opposed to have.
David Delene: About couple that people think about right here to discuss with you guys.
and
David Delene: They also talked a little bit there's like climate mitigation but that's more we try to separate out geoengineering on a big scale what a bit from vocalize What about occasion.
Some.
David Delene: Other questions does that make sense.
David Delene: Questions about the topics.
David Delene: ceiling at agency equipment, we focus on that for a suppression and.
David Delene: The main in house.
David Delene: We also mentioned about the jets ground generators.
David Delene: prepare for our and aircrafts top seeded basically it.
David Delene: And they used to radars in the air traded on the ground.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: And I could check online I don't see any messages put them in the chat if anybody online has any questions.
David Delene: I got it, and so let me.
David Delene: And i'll try to give you a hurry, on Thursday, if you got any questions beforehand.
David Delene: So there's a guide heavily weighted on the bass sections, but please review the other questions.
David Delene: and other material particularly ones that you're going to get right.
David Delene: To.
David Delene: um.
David Delene: So yeah for finding will have today's discussion on forecast and skew T if I don't get our way through that.
David Delene: And then hopefully we'll talk about a few things that last week.
David Delene: Well operations and recognitions.
David Delene: At least.
David Delene: And then maybe and what a bit about quite safe.
David Delene: Imagine you get a lot about flight safety any other classes.
David Delene: So it's a very important time topic.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: I got that right now i'm sharing it so now.
David Delene: i've got my screen, so I can still watch the menus and i'm still sharing the screen.
David Delene: And I gotta go back and stop this.
David Delene: OK, I see everybody on mine so.
David Delene: The next lecture is about.
David Delene: forecasting for what a modification operation, so you don't want to be stuck at the airport all the people there 24 hours a day, just weighed in.
David Delene: So we need to have some forecast and I put up the forecast for the next 10 days here with the rain on Friday and Saturday and Sunday possible showers.
David Delene: And you can have forecast and temperature and rain, the precept and it looked like.
David Delene: You know not too much rain is forecast for this weekend, because of the accumulations down here.
David Delene: So hopefully we don't get another three inches or ran.
David Delene: So that is why.
David Delene: i'm what a bit of introduction of why we use the weather forecast um.
David Delene: It helps to get the timing for the launch of the airplanes.
David Delene: You can reposition them.
David Delene: So we forecast this from my tax project if we have to be positioning aircraft, because the airport is tourniquet.
David Delene: Below requirements to take off so that's The important thing is, you want to be able to take off from the air for where to get frame is located.
David Delene: Time, it is also a big issue and a lot of times if i'm running a project i'm kind of like yeah to compile itself to get completed.
David Delene: ahead of time.
David Delene: So that we're not rushing to get it, but sometimes things happen and.
David Delene: You don't have that the other thing is if it's you know forecast to be a nice sunny day there's no possibility to make clouds what's not to have everybody to stay around.
David Delene: And not do anything useful and, of course, the other one is you got making sort of time, so when do we have time to fix things that are broken.
David Delene: And then, this is.
David Delene: When a couple pictures from when we visited.
David Delene: The operations last summer.
David Delene: I see the chat thing, people are like.
David Delene: to join with that what.
David Delene: We talked about space and time sales space we talked to her space show scales so.
David Delene: and go back to meteorology terms synaptic scale as you've read in in 2000 commerce very big scale muscle.
David Delene: Alpha and beta and micro scale, so I got a picture here of this crowd they can guess what the other.
David Delene: Night oh yeah I think the micro scale like the cloud server thing and then a lot of times is this, you know, important for what else can be very.
David Delene: Small so anyway here about the hair reports to the care that my house on Saturday.
David Delene: may get hair, yes, and you had a big.
David Delene: I have half inch my house up for that, so you can go measure it so and there was some other.
David Delene: Their events.
David Delene: And then we have timescales long range within 24 hours short range.
David Delene: And then you have the now cast it the six hours and I love the now cast it because that's when it gets interesting right now, it kind of look at the radar looking at the measurements more and observations do that now casting.
David Delene: For this, and a lot of the improvements and weather forecast and operations is not very short time scale.
David Delene: So working on paper, this weekend about now passed in and use the machine learning to do that artificial intelligence to help do that short term forecast and where we can't run a big for sophisticated model.
David Delene: Short range is 624.
David Delene: Oh sorry.
David Delene: I should read what i'm actually on there.
David Delene: six hours and more it's kind of the the short so six to 24th the now casting is the Minutes up to six hours type of.
David Delene: And we break that up for the now cast, and because we need time to render the physical models and if you if it takes three four hours to read them.
David Delene: they're not very much use for our we can you don't get the results quickly enough so.
David Delene: that's where we get the short range and then the long range forecasts are usually 24 hours so.
David Delene: And then different phenomenon has happened at different scales so let's talk a little bit about that.
David Delene: So atmospheric waves long waves So here we have the hemisphere type of view will come down from.
David Delene: The North Pole at the.
David Delene: At the Center when it 500 milliwatts pressure Bible, this is usually where we look at a lot of waves and look at how things move in the atmosphere.
David Delene: So long waves.
David Delene: And you can call them.
David Delene: Here, with the 1234 and five these.
David Delene: lines of constant.
David Delene: pressure.
David Delene: And you get these long way from dominance in the atmosphere it's not the.
David Delene: waves so.
David Delene: So when you're doing these forecasts and you know you have to have these terms, so that when people give the forecast.
David Delene: They put up the thoughts and they just assume that you know all this stuff and you keep seeing the same ones every day after day, and then you're like.
David Delene: Wait a second I don't really understand that i'm going to see different for four or five days to just assume that you booked out this before you add some introduction to this because they want to get to the forecast and not explain all the different terms and.
David Delene: That it's still a lot of the forecast will use short weights and long wave terms, so.
David Delene: So you have the short waves.
David Delene: Which are these were the depressions on kind of the long range pattern.
David Delene: So these are important for your stone development and of course these move in the northern hemisphere from west to east.
David Delene: So you look at where these waves are when they occur in your project area.
David Delene: So you wake up this long wave, and you can have these would have showed a wave embedded into that and that's a lot of times, where your.
David Delene: convective storms will occur.
David Delene: So you want to see when that gets to your here so sure racer basically trough yeah what a trough little.
David Delene: ben's in the longer waves, so this is the long wave here, and these other words depressions.
David Delene: weather.
David Delene: occur.
David Delene: Have you done the you know the 500 billboard charts and stuff.
David Delene: Long waves.
David Delene: Now this is what causes the variability.
David Delene: and other know whether so we got big ladder to synaptic.
David Delene: were at the mid-latitudes that we have lots of these storms so long ways move slowly were shorter waves, so you can move more quickly.
David Delene: Through the fall.
David Delene: You know the long waves kind of give you this dominant pattern.
David Delene: For the long term for a week.
David Delene: You know if you got a long way big great job, where you have high pressure that can dominate, for you know, five days to a week and give you that kind of pattern, or you can get in a bank active pattern, so this is kind of.
David Delene: You might want to know that straight because they talk about when you do to the flights, you know which we got to do so only so many hours for the week, so if you're in a very active pattern, you might want to save make sure you have enough hours to go and fly.
David Delene: If it's very active.
David Delene: Long wave pattern.
David Delene: But if it's not and you got a wedge, and you see that forecast and, unfortunately, you probably won't have any storm surprise.
David Delene: So the short waves produced the day to day variability.
David Delene: i'm typically when you have a forecast.
David Delene: I think Warren talked about this is forecasting class and stuff you talked about this, what a funnel.
David Delene: lot of forecast typically we start with the big picture what's going on.
David Delene: In a big.
David Delene: hemispheric synaptic scale and then you move down and you look at the details, for your particular region so we always go over this gnostic overview.
David Delene: And then, of course, the time is usually spent on the fine details of your particular vocal forecast so.
David Delene: Hopefully the forecast is a following that and not spending a whole lot of time on things that are not important, when you need to context, the big picture kind of shows you the context of what is what is doing.
David Delene: So convective weather forecast that.
David Delene: kind of a difficult to forecast for its thunderstorms kind of.
David Delene: When they initially were to cover issues of security are.
David Delene: can have multiple factors that influence them and it's a lot of small scale variability so we can get me to our just give a swastika uses.
David Delene: I don't have enough data that's my scientists, we always want more data what more measurements more observations to fill in typically on a local scale so that's why, if you don't have radar.
David Delene: For an operations, we need that data to to be able to do any valid forecast, so we want that.
David Delene: Data don't understand what's going on.
David Delene: With data dad what it said he didn't We understand that level of JET so messes up the forecast right, and of course we can have the models on that correct talk to a monitor the end of day we talked about the concentrations of the crowd drops it stuff they said, and they would in a paper.
David Delene: called drop because changes of the higher you know and they don't agree with the observation I need to fix that, so why don't you think the model is fixed someone else's obviously wrong.
With the observation.
David Delene: You know all the models, you know we can go in and tweak that parameter, we can set it a little bit higher to get you closer to what the observations are.
David Delene: So why don't we do that.
David Delene: yeah because if you move one thing makes though all the different complexities in the model change, so you don't know how that one change affects everything else, and it wakes other stuff so it's complicated because you got all these moving pieces so.
David Delene: They kind of give you an overall picture.
David Delene: But they got a lot of things so.
David Delene: that's why I go back to a black box type of we just correlate the data with machine learning this look at the data that we have and see what that means you predicts.
David Delene: Because we don't really need to know the details just want an accurate forecast and know what's going on.
David Delene: So the big thing that weather map drives us crazy is the uncertainty not have enough data models so.
David Delene: So if you say oh yeah nothing to all you can plan on going again and after the operations and then.
David Delene: The forecast change in the morning, so yeah looks like there's gonna be cross day cancel out implants so uncertainty is really.
David Delene: A big issue and it's hard to predict in put in, there were any uncertainty, so a lot of times they don't.
David Delene: We always sound confident this will be to the amount of free stuff that will get you know it will get it to 48.
David Delene: Well, they really haven't started to.
David Delene: have several feet in that forecast.
David Delene: So you have to know how much rain you get this uncertainty in that.
David Delene: So, of course, the solution is more information.
David Delene: Which means in terms of whether the information we want.
David Delene: Satellite data.
David Delene: But we're radar data is nice.
David Delene: opera air observations these up a balloon summons surface observations.
David Delene: We want different models what's the output of it, and then we want to combine a bunch of forecasts.
David Delene: So you look at different forecasts, with different models from different people.
David Delene: To get that information.
David Delene: So, before I talk about anyone has any general.
David Delene: forecasting questions.
David Delene: Try to scroll down make sure look at my chat.
David Delene: Question questions on the chat.
David Delene: Like Dan Gordon did a great job on Thursday, which was so enthusiastic go go go get them a chance to ask questions.
David Delene: So we are talking about each one of these observations, look at where the clouds are water vapor satellites sit above us.
David Delene: NASA Noah puts up on the side always give you a wide scale get crowd top temperatures, you can see where boundaries are between crowd conditions, not called.
David Delene: And a lot of times, you can see where confection initiates this is kind of in comparison to radar data, because the crowds.
David Delene: don't have enough, we for activity to return, but you can see them on the front of satellite images, as you can see that initialization of the cumulus clouds started off where folks are so Saturday so good to see the initialization of the complexion.
David Delene: And then, sometimes it black and white to color what you would see fishery sometimes their color bars looking at, for example, top temperatures.
David Delene: were here you have temperatures.
David Delene: So the red is higher temperatures and then they lose the colder temperatures so colder temperatures, a woman temperatures where our crowds.
David Delene: cold right because the atmosphere goes for more narrow surface decoder as you get to the chocolate bars, so you can see the visible ones here, you can see the white of your clouds and then the.
David Delene: The ground or low level crowds of one, so you get an idea how i'll hide and clouds oh.
David Delene: Great observations.
David Delene: Look at converter current convection our full boundaries you've looked at some of them when I worked at the radar.
David Delene: ECHO top So you can see how high too proud to get in, so why does the tops of the clouds important.
David Delene: The SCI.
David Delene: classes, frankly, the after after think about student when.
David Delene: They get caught in last week and what type of seated.
David Delene: yeah topsy in a word, so iodine you want to see how it get so definitely you know you can work at the heights and know what temperatures, they are.
David Delene: of coverage movement is nice lot of times here if I want to do something locally, you can a lot of times, see the storms development like devils lake area and move in here, so you can see that movement.
David Delene: Of the storm, you know if you have a project area, you can see when they're coming in, and when you need to be there, so you can kind of do a short forecast now in the next hour they're going to be here okay so it's going to take me, you know.
David Delene: 40 minutes to get to that, so I better stop thinking about getting in the airplane and and going.
David Delene: intensity trends, you can work out after intensifier or.
David Delene: Participating type of clouds.
David Delene: The other thing we look at is atmospheric soundings.
David Delene: have ideas about this seeing these little bit balloon sound and so that's what this key key lecture is and get to it.
David Delene: After your exam.
David Delene: But balloons sound dense and I bought a try next week to bring the radio silence, we have these ones now.
David Delene: we've been watching these what we call many songs he's a very cheap for those songs sensors here and we attach this to eat.
David Delene: So, and then sensors in here, so our policies around is only 60 grass prepared right.
David Delene: So these and company and you're going to send yourself so.
David Delene: Tell me about this celebration, so we want to try to ease into the storms to see.
David Delene: How much info we have different things so pass this around.
She.
David Delene: These ones, we can be covered them so they have a GPS tracking on them.
David Delene: So if it keeps it down and these ones also use it for some boundary or stuff.
David Delene: We have ones that have two balloons so we can watch.
David Delene: punch connect two of them, and then we can cut them down want so we watched one and it's done it'll bring it up and the other one is designed to just keep it point.
David Delene: So typically that the radio songs and national weather service say go opening week, so the idea here is we cut one loose and then we just got a scope and that way we can keep measurements in the lower part of the atmosphere.
David Delene: So I want to do that for fog.
David Delene: Because I really don't care what's up there, the stratosphere is one of the lower part and then, if we cut them down.
David Delene: When you do these big ones they go, you know 200 kilometers away, you know I didn't 20 miles so.
David Delene: it's a long ways to go to recover them and the time to do it if you can cut down sure.
David Delene: You don't have too far to go get them, you know you can try them and get them within five or 10 miles even a couple miles.
David Delene: And so we've done that only problem is a Catamaran and trees, or anything.
David Delene: So watch my new I got videos when we did the big ones in New Zealand and i'll balloon man it.
David Delene: In the middle of town kind of like crookston type of size towel, but rhonda right on the sidewalk and parachute was open to the roof of the House and stuff so it's like watching here what's the chances of ran and if.
David Delene: This happens ran across power lines, we had an audio on managers across the power line and so we're like well, we should probably know grip on us.
David Delene: So we call it the power company can you come shut these lines up because we got a big package prices are rising, so they come on.
David Delene: So yeah he's don't damage our lines, and so, but we recovered them because we have big packages, but the radio songs and stuff that people launched typically we don't recover them these ones you don't have to cover.
David Delene: The cost of the.
facades.
David Delene: Other questions.
David Delene: we'll talk more about the ski team later.
David Delene: surface observations you can look forward to whatever moisture is.
David Delene: So it's easy.
David Delene: No way that moisture comes from.
David Delene: To get up into the storms So where does most of our moisture come from around here.
David Delene: yeah metric for the ocean so there's some local that's we evaporated but.
David Delene: Mostly comes, because we have a big Gulf of Mexico that can have this moisture and lower party atmosphere come up one of temperature whatever wins look at infection of that.
David Delene: infections movement of the of the moisture temperature.
David Delene: So that'll help you got a example here where.
David Delene: The color code them look at the temperature and do point.
David Delene: See how much moisture there is there because remember when you do crowd CD and we don't create the clouds we don't add the moisture we just make the clouds boy fish.
David Delene: and producing that once there once the clouds form.
David Delene: Look at model courts lots of different plots lots of different ones that meet our just we'll just assume you know what they all mean a.
David Delene: lot of times you just want to say Okay, what do I need to know when Do I need to show up Is it safe to fly what's the uncertainty.
David Delene: But the models can do short range to mama range and so we're trying to get for weather modification operations to get to that shorter range and give better guidance, so that you don't get to the crowd late.
David Delene: And you can use that more.
David Delene: zero to six now cast and range so we're getting more models for facilitation that's where the development is it's.
David Delene: Forcing moisture fields vertical motion where the weeds to see where the clouds or.
David Delene: Other forecast, you have different people put out forecast stone prediction lab.
David Delene: Can you predict where the storms, are you have national weather service.
David Delene: That put up forecast.
David Delene: Know how's the weather prediction Center.
David Delene: They are put out specialized different women different focused forecast, so you can look at these different forecasts talk to different forecasters.
David Delene: So one of the things like when we did our impacts, the forecast is they would.
David Delene: Talk to that global office, where we might be fine because they have some maybe specialized knowledge of that area.
David Delene: And so people get very good at.
David Delene: The local conditions or particular type of forecast.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: The North Dakota core verification project and the CP see MP.
David Delene: Remember, they have two districts with district one.
David Delene: More yeah and the war Southwest and Bowman area and then stick to is up North so they can have different forecasts with each one of them.
David Delene: And it's Nice that they put a confidence factor when they have to make the forecast, so they usually do day first day second day for planning and then the confidence gold I have confidence, I have number.
David Delene: Four guys so what's you know, is there, hail predicted or not.
David Delene: synaptic forecast, you can read these in their area.
David Delene: And they are available.
David Delene: So now pick some ways I put out by all the national weather service office for their area.
David Delene: And, of course, they don't like to start a lot of words, when they take these out so emt is Eastern Montana Indians North Dakota and you have to know after you read a few of these our Jay so Jay.
David Delene: Low Level Jeff.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: gets some of these.
David Delene: terms of people have.
David Delene: But you know you can see, the movement of bigger scale of winter storms, are going to come in so doing these operations, maybe.
David Delene: Make that forecast this work if you're a pirate ask them some questions you know what about this little energetic they're going to read the other people's forecast and then you can see it, you can ask them questions.
David Delene: and
David Delene: Then there's a bunch of indexes for the forecast and in terms of.
David Delene: Particular Cape and sin bug, which is the number is important for al predictors they have these indices that they get from the sound and the calculate automatically and they help.
David Delene: To forecast for here particularly so there's a couple that they pay attention to and.
David Delene: You know how severe there's the hailstorm to get but sometimes you don't get a severe hair when you can get you no longer have asked and or air that is not predicted to be a.
David Delene: With a big storm.
David Delene: So I mentioned this, but with this and number is an indication of thunderstorm type.
David Delene: So it's an index season, you get from.
David Delene: Look at the sound in data.
David Delene: And it looks at the relative importance of keeping shear.
David Delene: So Cape is a vector of a variable potential energy is how much we have to have, for example.
David Delene: But which sheer sheer is.
David Delene: What is being.
David Delene: talked about.
David Delene: yeah so it's a differences of wind speed and direction with changes in altitude.
David Delene: So sheer is very important for storms.
David Delene: How that when changes with direction lots of sheer is important for for men.
David Delene: ale.
David Delene: And so, these combined.
David Delene: and give you one number, so you can look at these numbers in a Western 10 and the stone is unlikely.
David Delene: Moderate chance.
David Delene: And then you can have strong chance to sell your type of storms and you can form want to hear what higher.
David Delene: Bob were just in numbers, so they always record these see what they are and make forecasts of them look at them models and sometimes.
David Delene: You can do special soundness.
David Delene: And I said no, I don't think they do special sounds issues and national weather service on.
The Court.
David Delene: may know if i'm wrong about that.
David Delene: But some some places, you could be on soundings to calculate this and, sometimes, so what am I education projects can do that.
David Delene: Depending if you have the stone equipment so sneaky sure and less of those together.
or digital creativeness or so.
David Delene: So yeah a lot of that it depends, I think it's valid, because the the caves are important, but the sheer is really important for the the hailstones as opposed to just having a lot of key.
David Delene: So it's shared a very important for the hailstones and looking at that.
David Delene: You can this almost.
David Delene: You get enough Cape it just gives you enough left.
David Delene: But the and we saw this when i've looked at some of the Canadians storms as a lot of sheer.
David Delene: gives you a long lasting bigger intensity hailstorms.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: i'm so it's a kind of combination and you need enough K, but case.
David Delene: itself, we were does it predict a hailstorms.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: You need a certain amount of effort, but.
David Delene: But it doesn't mean that so they look a lot of time at the sheer and if you combine them and get the ball where certain number.
David Delene: And this, a lot of.
David Delene: outputs to take I have cast model and can get.
David Delene: A lot of different parameters is a lot of climbers that you can look out for how.
David Delene: And that so um.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: yeah That was my last slide um.
David Delene: So the summary is the forecast islands.
David Delene: So when do you do the forecast, this is what it means by forecast timings determined by climate ology and.
David Delene: Data variability basically a very good data, the model of what data when you want to do your forecast, because you want to reach a model answer done.
David Delene: But it's also dependent on climatology you know if you have them launch times occurred six or seven at night.
David Delene: You know you don't want to forecast right at that time you want to be prepared for them lunchtime so that's the current time climatology that's the average.
David Delene: And, of course, you want to share that information with everybody.
David Delene: So that you don't have that forecast and for all people that are going to do that right operators that the pirate so that there were aware of the uncertainty and then, if you're forecasting do that and things change.
David Delene: Then you want to have an update you know so a lot of times you you're saying Okay, this is what our plan is as we're off the update by this time.
David Delene: You know if i'm doing something like if i'm.
David Delene: When we did.
David Delene: Call city in North Dakota for testing hi this topic for us if it if we're not seen the development by three o'clock in the afternoon.
David Delene: We just caught off because you got to see some Development decided he didn't.
David Delene: want to look at nine type stuff so if we're not taken up by 455 o'clock.
David Delene: it's not going to happen, so you have been times when you say yes and no.
David Delene: It depends on how.
David Delene: come up what your lead time is too, because we would have people don't have to drive from grand forks to fargo and get ready and do the training so.
David Delene: Keep waiting awaiting and say Oh well, cheese's three o'clock now we never get down to the bottom of the article for 30 so we don't stop now.
David Delene: it's too late, we can't do anything else, so you have them.
David Delene: So I guess the.
David Delene: With this, and with the one.
David Delene: That exams just about all the time we got five minutes for questions.
David Delene: So the more exam questions for casting questions, we can look at the security observation some ones will talk about that, after the exam.
David Delene: trying to get through that but yes.
David Delene: I think about 7075 questions.
David Delene: Both 40 or 45 of them on new ones, and then never pick or advice, the other one is to keep you honest or.
David Delene: Maybe also give you the ones that you should know the answers to.
David Delene: Help so look at the questions if you need.
David Delene: It talk after class.
David Delene: Talk before class next week, if you got.
David Delene: questions or concerns next week.
David Delene: On Thursday, send me an email if you got questions about something that the previous ones.
David Delene: yeah pretty much.
David Delene: You know there'll be and reserve the right to reward them slightly.
David Delene: Maybe I had it for the first time, so but i'm kind of.
David Delene: don't have much time, so i'll.
David Delene: copy paste maybe how to answer, or something like to be mine he.
David Delene: should have a good good stuff there but review them the past.
David Delene: exam, so we should do to study is look at the questions that you made for the homework assignment make sure you can answer them.
David Delene: Maybe we can find a study partner work is their questions and to them look to study guide make up some questions for them make sure you can enter them questions and they go back.
David Delene: pretty sure you can look at the answers and stuff on the previous two exams, if not.
David Delene: The preview or X, Y.
David Delene: yeah I should open it not okay i'm gonna look i'm going to open it, this is to know I think one was open.
David Delene: to open up to, I will do that, right after crass that's what I wasn't sure I thought one was open so i'll open up to, to make sure you can look up the.
David Delene: The answers.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: Five minutes.
David Delene: yeah so the Thursday test.
David Delene: We could, yes, oh, I could open up early if you want to think of early on Tuesday.
David Delene: But I probably won't have it done until Thursday morning.
David Delene: The other thing we can do is, if you got to leave on Thursday and just not here for a test.
David Delene: would make another time you can take it on.
David Delene: Friday or Tuesday Monday.
David Delene: But yeah so I guess that the options on Thursday, Friday Monday, Tuesday.
David Delene: yeah so this email, and you know I don't know if you guys can get the whole group or something like that I got the list, I think, so I can make the.