David Delene: Green.
David Delene: here.
David Delene: If they tell.
David Delene: You to stop.
David Delene: Sorry.
David Delene: Okay, shall we get started.
David Delene: So Thursday bring your laptops and what to blackboard.
David Delene: test that will be open mine was.
David Delene: No notes or anything so.
David Delene: And that's so that you guys think about any questions from the study guide you've spent all weekend studying right.
David Delene: Oh, yesterday you had a day off the study.
David Delene: Absolutely okay all right.
David Delene: So when you study tonight.
David Delene: yeah any questions so you can ask any questions that you may have.
David Delene: Now, because you can't ask you can ask me on Thursday, but I won't answer when she come before the test, so what was your.
David Delene: um.
David Delene: yeah so P values are.
David Delene: A statistical significance, so they measure how statistically significant something is so.
David Delene: And that goes back to the hypothesis test and usually you have something where you say.
David Delene: We have a hypothesis that these two data sets.
David Delene: Are the same so usually you have a target you control, for example, when you say Oh, these two are the same.
David Delene: or where one is been modified and one has it and you say oh let's assume that these are the same.
David Delene: And then you want to reject that hypothesis.
David Delene: And the p value is how confident you are in that rejection, so you remember in science.
David Delene: We can't be ever who anything.
David Delene: So we can usually only disproved things.
David Delene: Okay, so that's why we like to reject that now promises to disprove it i'll confident our way and that's what the p value tells you are so.
David Delene: there's a significance, so you shoot and atmospheric science used 95% confidence value so that would be a P value of point or five.
David Delene: And if you calculate that as a statistical significance, you say it's only a 5% chance that these would will be from the same data set.
David Delene: or there's a 95% chance that they are different.
David Delene: And if they are different, then you can say the.
David Delene: loop that could be an effect due to weather modification.
David Delene: On that so it's it's a significance and it tells you how.
David Delene: confident you are in the results.
David Delene: So if you want some new technology i've been talking to someone this yesterday they got a new method for.
David Delene: for doing is some heavy applications to enhance precipitation.
David Delene: So the question is how confident, are you that that new technology will work.
David Delene: One way is with us Nicholas test.
So.
David Delene: that's why it's a confidence in.
David Delene: that's how he reads to what a modification hope and so a lot of the.
David Delene: The analysis, we want to get to that that level and usually you get to that with better cases and and more cases, but you need a whole lot.
David Delene: Does anybody remember in a paper that made you.
David Delene: wait for Thursday what the significant values were.
David Delene: Oh, I wasn't a question I don't think.
David Delene: We had some we had a we didn't make eight different cases eight different counties.
David Delene: I think one or two of them had a significant so point oh five.
David Delene: But not ones was when we analyze 40 years of data.
David Delene: pieces.
chance.
David Delene: You have a 10% chance that they would be the same yeah.
David Delene: So it's.
David Delene: You know.
David Delene: So you really want to come up and say something like um you know and and when you say that you see that significance forever, I think.
David Delene: You know these two data sets are not the same when a P value of point oh four.
David Delene: That there's only.
David Delene: That type of significant level 4% that the word happened to be exact, by chance they.
David Delene: rejected yeah.
David Delene: So that decided before the experiment, the day is.
David Delene: Both off.
David Delene: Because it's not a hard and fast rule right.
David Delene: Because you know there's nothing special well besides that 95% is two standard deviations but.
David Delene: there's nothing magical there's nothing about that right, if you get something up at 6%.
David Delene: And how much worse is that it's 1% worse, you know so.
David Delene: And so, sometimes we can modify by saying, or would take a significance of point one.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: You know it's kind of a.
David Delene: Standard acceptable level, but a lot of people will take, but some people take point 1.05.
David Delene: and
David Delene: Something point one some take very high.
David Delene: P values to so.
David Delene: it's the concept that you should really understand is that we really can't.
David Delene: say.
David Delene: You know now we prove that this works.
David Delene: Are we done is it's very unlikely that they're not the same, but then they had a question would be is.
David Delene: How.
David Delene: What else could have caused that.
David Delene: So just because you know you you do that, that doesn't prove a cause and effect relationship.
David Delene: So that's one of.
David Delene: The questions is you know you still have to think about why one would would cause the other.
David Delene: person.
David Delene: Oh.
David Delene: And the paper and.
David Delene: Then we're based upon the north Dakota.
David Delene: county areas, but this district one district, to the different counties.
David Delene: I want to be that specific.
David Delene: You know, know if it's in a Western North Dakota Asia, North Dakota.
David Delene: You know.
David Delene: Not.
David Delene: Pacific we.
David Delene: area, you know.
David Delene: But January Asia know something like we're not seeing North North Dakota.
David Delene: And they do change.
David Delene: We will get the reports, the so that's one of the problems we have is that sometimes the ponies join and then they stop.
David Delene: And there's actually.
David Delene: Two counties that have dropped out, so I want to do a study to compare what happens between when they were in the program one or more.
David Delene: see if we can see any change.
David Delene: Between that.
David Delene: thing, because then you got the same area, but the problem is storms and stuff would not necessarily be to say.
David Delene: But you should be able to get something in the terms of.
David Delene: What you have, but do you have enough years of data.
David Delene: Because if you just.
David Delene: have one year right just may be typically drought year so.
David Delene: You can't really rely on.
David Delene: That so you have to average over a long period time and that's a problem.
David Delene: That we ship station so variable.
David Delene: So other questions.
David Delene: I answer all the questions it's.
David Delene: kind of like the homework assignment.
David Delene: In terms of you know difference between what type of statistical ones are there.
David Delene: Remember the types of.
David Delene: Statistical evaluation methods.
David Delene: And this goes back to the the the paper and the homework problem.
David Delene: yeah non parametric and parametric so that was talked about in the lecture so.
David Delene: i'm a big words.
David Delene: So the parametric statistical tests of the underlying assumption that the random.
David Delene: And the you know the gaussian random pepper distribution.
David Delene: So parametric test the non parametric tests.
David Delene: Are ones where you don't really need to know.
David Delene: The underlying assumptions of how something of a precept so we evaluated precipitation North Dakota.
David Delene: So if we use a non parametric tests, then we don't have to make assumptions that it's a nice gaussian.
David Delene: distribution of the segmentation and that it's not random.
David Delene: And doesn't have to be a totally gaussian type of distribution that makes sense.
David Delene: So that's the the parametric tests.
David Delene: Or have a influence on your results.
David Delene: DEMO tapes this amount of tests right is the black box and the physical.
David Delene: I know what the like the black box type of.
David Delene: test is.
David Delene: Important.
David Delene: yeah so this goes back to your assignment, when we look at the.
David Delene: Statistics, and you have.
David Delene: You know we're we're just looking at the whole fourth of the precipitation.
David Delene: And we separate them into seed and Nancy target areas we really don't look at what goes on in the process, you know we didn't we look at well how well did they see this seed every storm that we have the storms, then.
David Delene: produce precipitation in that area, how did it produce the precipitation.
David Delene: So that's why you know it's a what a bit of a.
David Delene: You know it's not how much our the proof.
David Delene: Because it could be out of reasons for that so remember, there was a the one in my lecture.
David Delene: Remember what are the two things that.
David Delene: what's a veil.
David Delene: i've incorporated parameter to when people eat a lot of ice cream.
David Delene: You think your temperature, so the temperature if it's warm outside you know what is right So what does temperature or a.
David Delene: summertime sun sign, so does, that means sunny days cause people to consume a scream.
David Delene: well.
David Delene: They wanted to do it there, but that's not a cause.
David Delene: it's not a causation they both buried together.
David Delene: So, two things happen for some unknown reason it's a nice day.
David Delene: So the temperatures warm and.
David Delene: But there's I guess the other way, to look at it, you could say warm temperatures do not cause.
David Delene: A lot of assumptions HQ or though the choice.
David Delene: Then another one is you can call me stream for two at the stock market take a Missouri river, if you might see a high correlation.
David Delene: But how does the stock market price actually control the screen for.
David Delene: A causation is.
David Delene: is not there and people weren't try that.
David Delene: You know.
David Delene: We see it, and then it and we had this much peace invitation.
David Delene: Well, both facts are true.
David Delene: You could be seen in in the area, and I could preset but that doesn't necessarily mean one cause the outer.
David Delene: Just because they happen at the same time.
David Delene: Other questions.
David Delene: have some ranges of numbers.
David Delene: So you know not.
David Delene: The particular numbers, but at least the ratios.
David Delene: And you know some ballpark.
David Delene: they'll use of them, so I always like to.
David Delene: Two factors of 10.
David Delene: So you know if you're off by.
David Delene: One in order magnitude.
David Delene: That would be the idea, so you want to know, approximately but not the specific number, because if you want a specific number.
David Delene: that's what you got to go look up.
David Delene: Anybody know the mercury way to fixate.
David Delene: On my undergraduate chemistry texts.
it's 69.
David Delene: i'm not sure why, in a word, I should know that.
David Delene: You can just go look it up.
David Delene: In a table, but you should really know what work or weight is stuff so so orders of magnitude know that there's a big cost benefit.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: Good multiple choice question of what it would be.
David Delene: So that's how I write that up so when you study you should write up the test question.
David Delene: So don't wait a question, what is the cause of North Dakota project it's.
David Delene: You know what's the cost benefit ratio the placement me for.
David Delene: The North Dakota project or.
David Delene: What am I.
David Delene: Doing projects in general.
David Delene: Years insurance they calculate the.
David Delene: Patient, especially for inspiration yes um that's The short answer um the.
David Delene: The problem with that well.
David Delene: The well, let me say this, a couple ways.
David Delene: The Alberta Calgary project is paid for, and funded by the insurance companies.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: So they have worked at that in detail some of the problems with doing in a.
David Delene: A open review of of that is the insurance companies don't want us to give out that data.
David Delene: and
David Delene: He and maybe it's not that they don't want to it's how they.
David Delene: are able to in some sense I don't know that they're not exactly not restricted from given a no but it's probably.
David Delene: would have been more work that you would think to make that available.
David Delene: it's kind of the same thing, like.
David Delene: You know, no one, how much wind turbines produce.
David Delene: For power, so we talked about aircraft, I said.
David Delene: Right, so you can isolate your airplane it's great What about the winter vibrates.
David Delene: file over some of the big winter by farms, one of the ice up to.
David Delene: What did they do, they go shut off the wind turbines because if they get is the tool that I use away.
David Delene: degraded performance, so they can operate it an ice and conditions, just like you can't fly it's abuse and conditions, unless you have the proper equipment right.
David Delene: um so they shut down the wind turbines how much does that cost for the company's.
David Delene: So the company to get that you know how much is it that happens, you got to get from the company.
David Delene: How much they are losing for that and that's data, then not too anxious for people to know.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: So we haven't asked them and we have an idea of that, but because they actually have to find out and loan applications.
David Delene: So they do put an estimate in there.
David Delene: But it's hard sometimes to get that type of data.
David Delene: um but the insurance companies will do that estimate.
David Delene: And they have done some.
David Delene: And they do have a factor that's that you can you can put in, for example, the.
David Delene: Crop damage and stuff so they have done a report for North Dakota also for the people that work at the Su and if people don't understand that.
David Delene: The crop insurance industry.
And we're.
sparkles.
David Delene: I would think you should know.
David Delene: That there's different modes of the protocols there's three different modes of the aerosols, that on different size ranges.
David Delene: know the approximate size of the particles.
David Delene: Maybe relative to something else, like the way the way.
David Delene: yeah.
David Delene: And I probably would have been an affair, with that question is a very expect too much, but.
David Delene: um.
David Delene: The different modes come from different sources and sings.
David Delene: So be nice to know the sources and sings.
David Delene: Particularly for the accumulation more because the sink is the precipitation.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: We move on.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: We move on mechanism, so it is a source of the particles and then there's a removal or sink.
David Delene: In the atmosphere so.
David Delene: The.
David Delene: So in that diagram is sources of the particles.
David Delene: Like coagulation.
David Delene: Of the small particles give you the accumulation mode articles that's the source.
David Delene: So that's what provides it and if it doesn't continue to build up in the atmosphere, something has to move it.
David Delene: Right think of your bank account right.
David Delene: If you just have checks going into your bank account, or just continuously riles so the sink is what you take the money out for.
David Delene: um so the things are precipitation.
David Delene: So that's one thing known some of the examples of the sources and sinks known at this three modes of the aerosols.
David Delene: That came creation mode particles that are ones that typically form of lot of the the crowd droplets.
David Delene: Because it's high enough number concentration of them.
David Delene: To give you lots of particles, the last long time and atmosphere.
David Delene: What else should I asked about that.
David Delene: Just be clear on that, but all condensation we are great attendance is right that's what we could we need we define conversation you cry for.
David Delene: It can move there we are aerosols.
David Delene: You know, because although some technical terms with.
David Delene: With.
David Delene: You know, again it's where we start, but basically 10 nanometers we can consider that an aerosol store.
David Delene: And then they can get great big but.
David Delene: If they're very big it is fall right.
David Delene: So baseball want to be an aerosol because if you saw it, this falls to the ground right away.
David Delene: Right so.
David Delene: So the point is, you want to know that they stay there, and the idea is you got to know what the background is.
David Delene: And that's someone, and we can measure that that's like this new technique, they want to put in.
David Delene: ions into that undisputed help.
David Delene: dissipation process but what's the existing concentrations of them.
David Delene: And where do they exist, how do you measure them so that you know what you're changing.
David Delene: So even if you don't have all the details, you can kind of know the general process of what we think is happening.
David Delene: So that's why we're trying to explain.
David Delene: why we put these particles in the atmosphere.
David Delene: That we want to see what we want to put particles that don't exist, so that they do something that existed particles don't do.
David Delene: let's make it rain or suppress the hair.
David Delene: Okay, did I pass the test more questions.
David Delene: So the threshold temperatures are one particle 10,000 volts nice special.
David Delene: and
David Delene: Nuclear concentration are generally less than 1000 were meter minus 20 Celsius.
David Delene: Does that mean that about one in every 10 will produce nice crystal.
David Delene: That virtual character.
David Delene: that's that sounds kind of low for like a rainstorm.
David Delene: That may not.
David Delene: Ah, for those who are not ready.
David Delene: Good questions.
David Delene: Well yeah so it's it's a threshold temperature, which is.
David Delene: kind of this thought of something.
David Delene: it's not whereas very effective.
David Delene: So if you just were right at the threshold.
David Delene: You can start to see and have them thing but.
David Delene: You want to be.
David Delene: A lot colder well beyond the threshold.
David Delene: i'm trying to think of an analogy that might make that clear.
David Delene: So that's why you know we typically are not.
David Delene: warming crowds and having a lot of ice produce, for example, right at the threshold temperature.
David Delene: Okay that's what you make it a wood, a bit of ice.
David Delene: And maybe the other reason why you get you know you don't have a whole lot of ice is because in it just beyond where you start to form, is it takes a while.
David Delene: So yeah The idea is that maybe there's a few natural particles occur, and that would form the ice is not very efficient.
David Delene: That threshold temperature So if you have someone with a lot lower threshold that they activate that would really help, so I think you're right it's a pretty.
David Delene: inefficient ice formation mechanisms right at that threshold separate show.
David Delene: that's why you don't want to see what agi minus five going to be quite a bit colder than.
David Delene: The threshold temperature and.
David Delene: And that so.
David Delene: That makes sense in terms of.
David Delene: go off of that that.
David Delene: Do we know like one Nice, first of all about how much.
David Delene: Like I guess water it's out of its kind of area.
David Delene: So the drop like a nice this with a new form of water droplet moving in the right there a bunch of dots and soccer outside of how big the areas is personal and consumers.
David Delene: Of it gets a lot of water from the near environment, as the short answer, but the.
David Delene: The idea is that the environment is very turbulent it moves around so.
David Delene: What I think the better way to ask that question.
David Delene: Because.
David Delene: Because it's so thurman it makes us, so what we it takes in terms of.
David Delene: You know I made the previous drop with vague close by.
David Delene: But then other things come in and that's the preeminent course area well to be quick.
David Delene: In terms of this lifetime of particle but then a lot.
David Delene: The air mixes and a lot of water vapor comes in.
David Delene: What probably talk about it later in terms of how much.
David Delene: Water does the does a storm actually remove.
David Delene: From the atmosphere, so you can think of the whole storm.
David Delene: Okay, how much water that exists.
David Delene: In the.
David Delene: atmosphere is that storm actually moving.
David Delene: So the answer is it's not that much.
David Delene: So, no, no one to 10%.
David Delene: So it's not like that whole area, you have the storm that you move that that moisture from.
David Delene: So very efficient storm when we move maybe upwards of 10% of the actual water in the vapor face.
David Delene: So it's it's we are to be small enough, we move in all wet dry it off the air.
David Delene: So I guess the short answer is there's lots of water vapor for it to pour.
David Delene: So you really don't be created.
David Delene: or whatever, however.
David Delene: You can and small voguish.
David Delene: That we can present those little true for snowstorms.
David Delene: yeah I think this no stones.
David Delene: class.
David Delene: And then, a lot of that as long range transport to.
David Delene: But there's some well, particularly those doors.
David Delene: mommy.
David Delene: it's you know what an ocean water and stuff so you can actually look at your type of water is where it comes from it.
David Delene: On a p3 aircraft, we have ones that will actually distinguish how much water is an ice vapor phase where it comes from my work interface across.
David Delene: So there are different.
David Delene: types of water molecules.
David Delene: Questions I.
David Delene: want to ask.
David Delene: That question.
David Delene: How much you you preach.
David Delene: But we'll talk more about that later.
David Delene: Once you start following the crowd stuff to.
David Delene: pass your test.
David Delene: Take my exam I.
David Delene: can do it in 45 minutes.
David Delene: You shouldn't do that but.
David Delene: wait for these ones.
David Delene: yeah there's going to be more fish, a lot of multiple choice.
David Delene: The ranges of numbers.
David Delene: um.
David Delene: let's see how the other ones go.
To their expressions.
David Delene: And then, if you get confused on.
David Delene: How we can tell you what a non parametric test it is but.
David Delene: We give you some hints.
David Delene: So a lot of its vocabulary, making sure you know, the terms we used.
David Delene: P values terms.
David Delene: Some.
David Delene: terms and.
David Delene: concepts.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: And then.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: Any more questions, but I had a couple of things.
David Delene: To talk about whole yeah one of them, as if maybe you guys, some of you have heard, they did post the applications for the internship for the North Dakota project, and you can try this name is Ahmed So this is the web page sorry i'm.
David Delene: Here so voted a website.
David Delene: Maybe I should put it up in a link i'm going to do that, after class, but I posted it on today's recording insurance here pirates this dense and you can go to the career page.
David Delene: Or the north Dakota site and put in water resources because.
David Delene: it's under.
David Delene: Forget department of water or something.
David Delene: At the state level forget the official term.
David Delene: So you can do that, you should find that and the applications that do.
David Delene: march 6.
David Delene: So that's only my two weeks.
David Delene: Because 28.
David Delene: To two weeks from yesterday I wouldn't guess it.
David Delene: there's only 28 days and server punches there's a 22nd.
David Delene: So the two more weekends to what are your stuff in there.
David Delene: see how it goes.
David Delene: And I think they have some questions you're going to answer.
David Delene: So if you have any questions about that on it, I may be able to talk to people.
David Delene: That posted it if it's not clear or get the price of that.
David Delene: And maybe we can try to get some time I, for one, a lot of UN de pirates over the years.
David Delene: And stuff so.
David Delene: And five or 10 years if he's still do the line.
David Delene: You fire research came here to go.
David Delene: and study the clouds Okay, I wanted to get through, I was hoping that this one to take so long, but maybe i'll just cover one lecture today so.
David Delene: This won't be.
David Delene: Specific really.
David Delene: On the.
David Delene: exam this time but we're going to talk about dropping off the ice crystal growth.
David Delene: which we talked a little bit about before.
David Delene: In terms of.
David Delene: factors that affect the growth of the drop with so we talked about the new creation, the initial formation of the particles.
David Delene: Now we want to talk about the growth of the particles.
David Delene: How they get bigger.
David Delene: And there's two things.
David Delene: The scientists have.
David Delene: The buys one is curvature.
David Delene: and the other is.
David Delene: us lose.
David Delene: house the soluble materials inside droplets.
David Delene: sort of drop which I put in here glow one is more vital vapors at the surface, that go into the drop, which then escape.
David Delene: Okay, so.
David Delene: it's a subtlety but the idea is that.
David Delene: it's an equilibrium and so at the very surface there's always a bunch of water droplets took a while to the vapor phase and a bunch of come in, so we want more coming in and going and all.
David Delene: Okay, so there's not a government is growing.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: So what we need to do is get that to happen and that's and be affected by the.
David Delene: The curvature.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: Agreement vapor pressure by fact that one of all.
David Delene: So as a drop with bigger.
David Delene: um they the vapor pressure it just easier for the droplets.
David Delene: become the water come in, or the other way is more probably better to smart rappers have a difficult time, keeping from evaporated.
David Delene: Right so there's a lot, I want to go out.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: i'm so.
David Delene: If you got a small one doesn't have a bunch of these particles that will escape to the environment and and master them that will come in so it's harder to.
David Delene: keep them.
David Delene: So one of the big conclusions I.
David Delene: want to do is a larger droplet.
David Delene: make better crowd kind of session
David Delene: So, the bigger the particles are.
David Delene: They got a bigger size and so they have a head start on forming a drop what's.
David Delene: Okay.
David Delene: And that was goes back to the aerosols, we have less of them in the atmosphere.
David Delene: So one of the things we wanted, we try to do is we got a lot of accumulation mode aerosol in terms of number.
David Delene: But not a lot of these Washington micron and size, so we can put these into the atmosphere.
David Delene: And then that.
David Delene: Will form water droplets and and then you can grow them larger.
David Delene: And there's a need to be we don't want them to watch because they fall away out of that.
David Delene: So, six, eight microns and sizes, a good size for support.
David Delene: And this is one reason that precipitation of the oceans are very efficient there's a lot of sea salt, which is very big particles.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: don't.
David Delene: Try to do what a modification project on the ocean.
David Delene: there's no reason to have rain over the ocean, but it's also very excited.
David Delene: To do that.
David Delene: The way efficient process there.
David Delene: The other fact is what's the.
David Delene: dissolve substances in the water.
David Delene: So I was a vapor pressure require free we have we have.
David Delene: So, think of it as.
David Delene: If you got one of these articles in there.
David Delene: it's.
David Delene: kind of hold the water molecules in there, better.
David Delene: Okay, is order for the water particles to escape and one of the things you could think of is you know if you have so many particles on the surface of water molecules we didn't stay in the drop with.
David Delene: Okay, so typically the salt will keep.
David Delene: The water molecules in.
David Delene: The droplets.
David Delene: that's the that's the vapor pressure in.
David Delene: The atmosphere at the surface of the droplets.
David Delene: So vapor is gas so mostly gas quiet pressure.
David Delene: And equilibrium is is how much you have equal amounts of the markers going in and out.
David Delene: Of the droplets.
David Delene: Yes.
David Delene: um.
David Delene: And then we have this concept of super saturation.
David Delene: that's how much we're above the hundred percent saturation value.
David Delene: Okay saltier.
David Delene: More dissolve material.
David Delene: You know, you need less of.
David Delene: A super saturation to keep in to the.
David Delene: Keep the drag and drop it for me exactly to survive, so it doesn't survive when it evaporates loses water molecules.
David Delene: Like vapor pressure outside a little bit of pressure, but that'd be nice to people who drop it to survive, but the equilibrium pressure drops even lower than basically it has extra pressure so.
It.
David Delene: sounds good to me.
David Delene: yeah.
David Delene: size of the droplet increases the living.
David Delene: A good job what is moving to be around around.
David Delene: I think it's reverse.
David Delene: vapor pressure is where you have equal amounts going in an hour.
David Delene: You press the Caribbean pressure.
You know so.
David Delene: So the equilibrium is where you go eat with now evaporated not growing.
David Delene: So you can think of that as if you have lower equilibrium vapor pressure.
David Delene: That means it can survive at a lower super saturation.
David Delene: it's easier for it to retain its.
David Delene: Water molecules.
David Delene: So just having a lower pressure than the actual payment pressures it's not perfect world.
David Delene: that's not fair to just stay alive it's enough to stay right.
David Delene: The.
David Delene: expect chemo a.
David Delene: lot yet.
So.
David Delene: that's kind of a runaway effectively it gets water pressure lowers it gets more water keeps going down eventually.
David Delene: yeah so that's The other thing is I don't say here, but once it starts to grow, it will keep on the call.
David Delene: Okay, because it grows and gets bigger and it's easier to get more keep us.
David Delene: So kind of like in our city, if you have money and use it to make money.
David Delene: Right, so we have the drop where you get what have a bigger than is easier to keep getting big.
David Delene: And so that's what we call activation so that's what happens once they it starts to grow.
David Delene: It just continues to grow.
David Delene: Okay, and the secret is.
David Delene: What it is, but the the smaller droplets.
David Delene: They get started smaller but initially they go faster than a big one, because the big ones in terms of the radius or the amateur because if you already.
David Delene: know it takes one long, it was taking the speaker.
David Delene: So eventually the small ones will catch up.
David Delene: So, as long as i'm growing.
David Delene: They will catch up to the big goals almost but not quite a nail.
David Delene: A so the big ones will still go bigger, but this is that.
David Delene: Between that you know you have a very wide range between the biggest and smallest begin with and, as you finding it into the crowd across that range has shrunk.
David Delene: The main thing is that he saw salts and stop it, there is easier order.
David Delene: To maintain itself, you know big.
David Delene: house.
David Delene: Big curvature House will can also have it.
David Delene: In the dropbox so how's it well.
David Delene: Of course, the next point is that continuously events and water vapor but you're not adding any more articles, but it's not a lot of Oracle.
David Delene: So a very small drop what would a SEC, and is very salty water dissolved.
David Delene: or.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: So that affects becomes far.
David Delene: as well, so you got.
David Delene: The curvature of a speaker, but this affects the small.
David Delene: And that's was shown in the next diagram.
David Delene: Is that you have.
David Delene: By effects.
David Delene: Of the temperature you got the curvature of back so i'm.
This is.
David Delene: The smooth.
David Delene: As it gets bigger curvature goes off.
David Delene: Okay, so these compensate.
David Delene: And you flowing throughout quick and then.
David Delene: It was very rapidly, so this is dropping radius here.
David Delene: This is super saturation.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: This is super saturation hundred percent one one is 100% so once you get.
David Delene: So there's actually a.
David Delene: drop of water substance it doesn't go directly from Oracle well.
David Delene: To liquid right percent.
David Delene: Okay, so that water vapor we started events.
David Delene: Even after.
David Delene: The humidity goes off.
David Delene: Okay, so i'm very much because, as some basic day have a water small particle but the Community is below 100%.
David Delene: So, the more we thought as order forms but above the hundred percent.
David Delene: into this point.
David Delene: and
David Delene: They would kenya's whoa.
David Delene: too big of particles, even though he made he starts to fall.
David Delene: Okay, so this is the activation points so you get to a point.
David Delene: To get it big enough that it can you will email the.
David Delene: Community around and drop all.
David Delene: And it will be tedious well, can you for me as well around.
David Delene: rob with your.
David Delene: 10 microns size.
David Delene: We don't need to have that industry, increasing the size of inside information on that.
David Delene: It gets complicated.
David Delene: But the main thing is to understand.
David Delene: them off.
David Delene: um.
David Delene: The other thing that we can look, that is why aerosol art or science makes a difference.
David Delene: Is.
David Delene: This is super saturation.
David Delene: So the.
David Delene: solace zero is where you are 100% of community.
David Delene: And if you have bigger or calls in the last super saturation.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: The super saturations in the clouds.
David Delene: lot of times this is Donna, with the last piece of fast all right.
David Delene: Okay rises fake, but we have pools effect, but we we get a very super saturated by.
David Delene: So if you got a very big storm.
David Delene: is going to create huge of graphs.
David Delene: And you're going to activate a lot of arrows off court.
David Delene: Okay, so there's plenty of particles that are available performance.
David Delene: But she kind of more you know cloud.
David Delene: And you only have a few big porticoes you're not going to form of water, the water droplets.
David Delene: So that's why we see these products that don't have to pick up draft.
David Delene: You can affect them.
David Delene: So it's the concept of.
David Delene: Not.
David Delene: You can affect something that's already going to be will be honored, as already mentioned it's a big storm is going to make a lot of.
David Delene: precipitation droplets.
David Delene: And to do that that's why it's hard to stop this I think some of the beginning of the Semester asked about some fresson.
David Delene: When information.
David Delene: You got enough they damage to get it up.
David Delene: here.
David Delene: Already there.
So.
David Delene: we'll get rid of that or.
David Delene: Do.
David Delene: We move on.
David Delene: can add one.
David Delene: So the big point here is that bigger aerosols.
David Delene: The P, is the size of the aerosol 2.5 they require rest super saturation mess immunity less of a bigger store.
David Delene: To make the droplets.
David Delene: that's why, if you don't have much of an autograph much of a system.
David Delene: Experience and make the precipitation anymore.
David Delene: proud.
David Delene: follow up you're not a vigorous, you will form.
David Delene: So this is what they did proclamations.
David Delene: Is that right next olds.
David Delene: Remember, where that is he from below.
David Delene: we're walking surface.
David Delene: And then, as the air is all boils down that creates the.
David Delene: Wealth minute increases.
David Delene: And then he's larger Oracle first activate upon broadway.
David Delene: whoa.
David Delene: So you have on my graph is form.
David Delene: But they should be is usually that is near the base of the files so yay for a lot of topics we interface with a couple hundred years.
David Delene: terms of number of the particles.
David Delene: And so once they get big enough to take up the water vapor and row.
David Delene: And then, for us, and we're slowly add more water, but you don't get known speaker Oracle support.
David Delene: Ideas all these individual oil goes on the face of the products.
David Delene: Because they have an online or on particles.
David Delene: So this is the world and the formation of the House.
David Delene: So we can model it see how different between big boy it wasn't what I was.
David Delene: And we try to model that like putting a big boy what that does it was natural there.
David Delene: that's how we understand what would happen it's me Stan also drop as well.
David Delene: In terms of the number of.
David Delene: Change number of dropbox need to do it needed a bass.
David Delene: bass, with the large either static state of flux.
David Delene: So.
David Delene: Just naturally clouds.
David Delene: That guess they usually have.
David Delene: I guess you could form is regular storm clouds just regular bearer for example.
David Delene: yeah therefore crowds step this sum.
David Delene: up there, you know.
David Delene: And like I said, even if it's not.
David Delene: Even if it doesn't reach a certain age so then some of the water, the port.
David Delene: Oracle will grow.
David Delene: But it before you get to 100% they mean double or triple that size.
David Delene: In the clouds.
David Delene: They go orders of magnitude.
David Delene: They get up hundred to 1000 times.
David Delene: Okay, so.
David Delene: it's a major change in the status of drop.
David Delene: When you get is a.
David Delene: 400% admitted.
David Delene: But there's always articles that will form some of them.
David Delene: But how big a.
David Delene: and
David Delene: You see.
David Delene: Oh.
David Delene: well.
David Delene: So good oh my God, but this becomes very flat.
David Delene: A so it's very easy for these 10 microns articles.
David Delene: But they must particles in your cumulus clouds and they don't they don't precipitate.
David Delene: Those easy on his ones.
David Delene: But there's another process for talk about that will get the precipitation size port.
David Delene: They haven't figured in the kind of icons to start with fall.
David Delene: But there's always another form of crowds.
David Delene: In terms of the typical.
David Delene: humidity into the atmosphere, for this is not much of 100%, this is only.
David Delene: 100.4 it's not.
David Delene: In every week it's super saturated hundred and.
David Delene: 1% of the Community in terms of water there's so many articles about.
David Delene: A lot of articles as.
David Delene: Body sources.
David Delene: There wasn't anything putting that stuff up in the atmosphere.
David Delene: This is the head.
David Delene: Black shirt.
David Delene: So whenever i've put together the PowerPoint slides I start with the other one.
David Delene: So you only write one lecturing and that's a modification.
David Delene: That class.
David Delene: So okay we'll stop there, what did you think of any other questions.
David Delene: You trying to email me try to answer.
David Delene: The class and I will try to.
David Delene: know this ship this class beforehand, but I try to be here is 15 minutes and then so REACH, so that answer questions.
David Delene: In directly to his questions on it.
David Delene: In terms of.
David Delene: knowledge.
David Delene: centric from that time so i'm going to generate all.
David Delene: what the difference is between my.
David Delene: Science based back girls data analysis paper and wondering, we just quote.
David Delene: Opinions that.
David Delene: Oh so.
David Delene: So not in general.
David Delene: or anything specific or not be on the application of the concepts of.
David Delene: Statistical tests.
David Delene: So that was a statistical analysis study.
David Delene: or read the papers without physical process study.
David Delene: read all my papers.
David Delene: So just an exam questions.
David Delene: I will go over each one of the study guys look at them and come up with questions.
David Delene: Everyone, and it was with math need separate we put in multiple choice answers.
David Delene: A question about about.